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2011 Oscars Preview: Who Should Win and Who Will Win

  • Jan 24, 2011
Every year I swear I'll never watch another Oscars, and every year I'm made a liar. Here's what will win in 2011 (ha, please don't read this in March).

*** WARNING - Contains spoilers and/or bad language! *** NSFW! ***
1
Best Original Score


What should win: In a musically quiet year, Hans Zimmer literally spanks the orchestra with Inception, a score so magnificently awesome that John Williams is already thinking of ways to rip it off. Ah, screw it, he'll just keep ripping off Russian composers instead. 

What will win: if the Globes are anything to go by, The Social Network will rob Zimmer of well-deserved glory with its pathetic piano twiddling melody that sold exactly zero CDs. Zero.

WTF rating: 9/10 - the Academy is going deaf, and Zimmer should boycott the whole event.
2
Best Television Series - Drama
 

What should win: hands down on Dexter, the world's favorite serial killer who makes Miami the most dangerous place in the world to live in. Even the non-stop whining voiceover works here, and the airport-novel plots twists keep us addicted like the TV-crackwhores that we are.

Who will win: Boardwalk Fucking Empire with captain corpse, Steve Buscemi and its stupidly expensive real-life set. It's like Goodfellas meets The Untouchables and for some reason they didn't get along. As for Mad Men, it's about 2 seasons off the boil.

WTF rating: 4/10 - I can see this one coming, and it's partly because Michael C Hall and Jennifer Carpenter got divorced, which seems kind of sad.

I really stole this category from the Globes :-D
3
Best Supporting Actress


Who should win: Marion Cotillard for playing a dead wife in Inception who steals the entire show. Simultaneously creepy, sad and terrifying, she makes Glenn Close's Alex Forrest look like Jane Eyre.

Who will win: Ineption's Keira Friggin' Knightley, most likely, since she managed to stretch that one expression she does through the whole of Never Let Me Go. Keira routinely confuses acting with staring, but ever since Americans have felt the need to put token Brits in every damned TV show, there's now a token Brit Oscar in marginal categories.

WTF rating: 7/10 - note to pretty English girls: an inability to act is no barrier to a Hollywood acting career.
4
Best Supporting Actor


Who Should Win: someone other than Christian Bale

Who Will Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter, as Hollywood tries to forget about "those incidents". And now he has long hair, so he must be ok. Bale's fall and resurrection reflects the journey of so many screenplay heroes that it's almost the right thing for him to win, though admittedly even Hannibal Lecter didn't beat up his mother.

WTF: 2/10 - morally reprehensible but it's been pretty thin on the Supporting Actor front this year.
5
Best Actor


Who should win: Jesse Eisenberg showed us what real actors do when he became Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network. Period.

Who will win: talking of period, Colin Firth will snatch this for the British team, since the Academy knows that real acting can only happen in period dramas. And isn't Colin cute?

WTF: 2/10 - not so bad, since Colin Firth was good - but I think Jesse out-acted him.
7
Best Screenplay


Who should win: Christopher Nolan's Inception is a masterpiece that both respects and completely alters the basic rules of screenwriting. It took a decade and reads like poetry.

Who will win: Aaron Sorkin's The Social Network, since there's a need to give a few nods to David Fincher and Nolan isn't generally liked by Hollywood Brethen. Almost like an English James Cameron, Nolan is considered an upstart who's a slave to entertaining audiences and being a little too clever for his own good. And he wears a suit all the time and never gets pissed off, which is just completely unacceptable.

WTF: 4/10 - I really like Sorkin's screenplay, but have to say it's outclassed by Nolan's. Still, either is a decent winner - it isn't like The Town is going to get nominated.
8
Best Director


Who should win: Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan shows what a good director can really do.

Who will win: David Fincher's The Social Network shows what happens when the Academy misses out on a cinematic gem like Fight Club and figures out how to say "I'm sorry" without chocolates. Plus Fincher is a stand-up no-bullshit guy who might give the sort of speech that makes Ricky Gervais' Oscar performance look like one of those ass-kissing "love your dress" red carpet interviews. I'm thinking Michael Wincott from What Just Happened (above) who, incidentally, was actually modeled on Fincher.

WTF: 1/10 - either way, it's not a bad result.

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Post a Comment
February 28, 2011
As usual, my Oscars predictions were about 50/50... :-D
 
February 04, 2011
oOo, for once I disagree with you on a couple of points! I actually think Alexandre Desplat deserves the Oscar over Zimmer because 1) I find it dubious that he actually writes anything himself anymore sans the aide of his minions in Santa Monica, and 2) Desplat's score may not have been as grandiose as Zimmer's, but it enhanced the film far more than Zimmer's did for Inception (and being a composer, I'd like to think I have some authority to comment on it, ^_^). And I don't think Eisenberg could best Firth in a million years (maybe a million and one), especially with his role in The Social Network where he was far too one-dimensional (and as much as we'd like to think Zuckerberg's a robot in real life, there definitely is more to him than what Jesse offered in the film). In any case, I really do hope Natalie Portman wins! She absolutely deserves it and I think the Academy is well aware of how much shit they'll get if she doesn't win!...*calls the gay mafia* Thanks for another great list!
February 07, 2011
I am admittedly tone-deaf and impervious to any sort of musical education, so I'll defer to the resident composer! I think Firth has it in the bag since it's the first time he's ever actually acted and not rehashed his Mr Darcy routine (wait, wait... yes, the first hate mail just arrived). Go Portman!
 
January 31, 2011
Really creative list and I liked your take on your picks for the Oscars. Keira Knightley isn't nominated for Best Supporting Actress, so you're safe there. I think that Leo out-acted them all but, he's not nominated for Best Actor (boo Academy!). I agree that Natalie should win but, I think she'll take it over Annette- maybe I'm too much of an idealist? I totally agree with you on 7 & 8!
January 31, 2011
Thanks! I'm glad to see that Twice-nightly Knightley didn't get the Nom. Leo won't get another nod until he works with a "respected" director again, like Spielberg or Scorsese - he's already filling up his mantelpiece too quickly with statuettes. Let's hope Natalie wins but doesn't break down in a "OMG the world is beautiful" sort of way!
February 01, 2011
LOL...totally!
 
January 31, 2011
   I actually think Natalie Portman has a chance because the Academy actually likes her quite a bit.  What might keep Portman from winning is more likely to be because she's not "due" more so than anything else.

As for music score, I don't think Zimmer will be given the award because for God knows what reason they play this game where once you win once... it's hard to do it again.  Hans Zimmer has a trophy they might feel the need to give it to someone else.

But one thing to keep in mind... Inception's competition for screenplay isn't The Social Network.  Inception is being nominated for Best ORIGINAL screenplay while The Social Network is being nominated for ADAPTED.  Even then, however, I think the winner for original will probably be The King's Speech.  But I think Aaron Sorkin's Social Network will take home adapted.
January 31, 2011
Good points - though I thought Inception may be included in Best Adapted, given the Scrooge McDuck source! You might be right about The King's Speech - we'll have to revisit this list shortly to see how visionary or off the mark I was. :-)
 
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James Beswick ()
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