A series of protests and confrontations occurring in the Nor …
On 19 March 2011 a multi-state coalition began a military intervention in Libya to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, which was taken in response to events during the 2011 Libyan uprising. On 19 March, military operations began, … see full wiki
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Let me say this for clarity: I agree with your premise that nothing good can come from this, if that's the point you're making. I personally believe we should've stayed out of Libya, and I have my own political and economic reasons for taking that position. The Gadfly is one bad dude; I think his number was up over a decade ago, but, sadly, nothing was ever done to remove him from the world stage. But I can think of plenty of other far more substantial reasons for the US in particular to NOT be involved in this campaign than those you've cited.
That said, I agree with you entirely is that what we're bound to see is some kind of protracted civil war. Libya is overrun with various tribal factions, and -- as we're seeing to some extent playing out in the situation regarding Yemen and Saudi Arabia -- these factions are bound to always remain in conflict. They are, simply, far older than we (in the Western world) can seriously imagine. These kinds of strife and animosity run very deep, and that's why I'd argue that the greatest possible risk associated to the U.S. and NATO's involvement with respect to Libya is, "What happens after the Gadfly is gone?" I think the resulting 'devil' may be greater than the 'devil' we're currently trying to control.
Lockerbie remains a bit of a mystery to me. The Gadfly's role in it is pretty clear if you look at the evidence, but I think that using this reason to justify the current conflict is a bit of a farce because we're talking about something that's over two decades old. I think the U.S. loses a lot of "street cred" with some of our international players when we agreed to jump aboard this "humanitarian not-war" by citing our right to defend ourselves against something that happened so long ago, especially given the fact that the Gadfly's largely been seen as a "soft ally" during the War on Terror. If Lockerbie ever needed to be dealt with, then it needed to be dealt with 15 years ago. Citing it now just seems like, "Well, we really didn't have any other reason -- besides not liking the man -- to go after Qadafi today with our international partners BUT he did kill some U.S. citizens two decades ago, so what the hell, we're in!"
However, I think you're still making solid points. I just don't always agree with the analysis. I do agree with your conclusion -- that we're not getting out of this either (a) quickly or (b) cleanly. There just ain't no way. Not gonna happen.