Here is why I think Senator Obama will be the next President of these United States:
Erase what you know about Barack and his opponent for a minute and remember these few things. That would apply to anyone running as the ‘Democratic Nominee for President'
The incumbent party doesn't win during a recession
History teaches us this fact. In 1980, after Carter had his way with Washington, Ronald Regan and his buddy H-Dubya cleaned up the Electoral College 489 to 49. This was proven again in the 1992 Election when Clinton routed Bush 41 by winning red state after red state because of the famed "It's the Economy Stupid" coined by James Carville.
For about a year now, some in the main stream media, all of the Republican candidates for President, the President himself and even many on the left have gone out of their way to let it be known that we are not in a ‘recession' but we are in some sort of ‘economic slow-down' headed towards the ‘R Word'. Well, if you ask anyone in the ever shrinking ‘Middle Class' if we're in a recession, they don't even think before they answer with a resounding YES.
Now that the DOW 'plunges' and 'plummets' on what seems to be a daily basis people are more likely to use the word Recession. When the American people are losing their jobs, being kicked out of the homes they were told they could afford and they turn on the TV to hear words like ‘Bailout' and ‘Golden Parachute' over and over again, the tend to want to kick the current administration out of office.
The incumbent party doesn't win during an unpopular war
Again, History has taught us this. Granted, World War I and II weren't unpopular, at least not in the way that Vietnam was. Just ask Truman, Carter and Nixon how their second term was.
ALL major polls (averaged) have 'country on the wrong track ' at 65% plus.
According to realclearpolitics.com and several other websites that average out the nation's current opinion polls, Americans are not happy with our current situation. ‘On the wrong track' is a pretty broad statement but not a partisan one. Most of us on the left are upset about the war, the economy and the President themselves. Those Americans on the right are upset about the mismanagement of the war and while they refuse to call this a ‘Rescission' they face down the same economic hardships as those on the left.
ALL major polls (averaged) have Bush's Approval rating at 30% or less.
Nuff said, huh?
The Dems historic and massively long primary election.
Hillary Clinton's relentless attacks made Obama stronger. Not in the fighter sort of way so much as making him look like a formidable and legitimate and all around viable candidate for POTUS to the ‘but he's a Muslim and wasn't born in America' crowd.
Because Hillary dragged it out so long, the Obama campaign was forced to take their nearly unstoppable ground game and strategy to every single state in the union. This means that because of Obama's unprecedented voter registration efforts democrats now out-number republicans by 11,000,000 (yes ELEVEN MILLION) registered voters.
Now, add back into the mix what you DO know about The Obama for America campaign and Barack Obama himself.
A Compelling Story
Despite having written 2 bestselling books, winning 2 grammy's for the audio version of said books, having given arguably the best Keynote address ever at the 2004 Democratic National Convention (in which he used his own story as his verbal backdrop) many people still don't know his story or just now hearing it for the first time. Try to think back to when you first heard Barack speak, or first read his story. Think back to how great it was…
It's no secret that John Kerry and Al Gore combined, on their BEST day, don't have a tenth of Barack's charisma. Barack still has his bad speaking moments with his ‘UM' and ‘Uh' issues, but they are far surpassed by his ability to captivate an audience.
Barack's Ground Game
The Obama for America campaign is the first Democratic campaign in quite a while that understands the ground game as much as the Republican machine has in the past. John Kerry and Al Gore did not have half the paid staffers that Barack does. And it's obvious even to the people that do not pay attention that there is a small army of volunteers for this campaign. Whether it's phone banks, canvassing door to door, watch parties, text message campaigns, free concerts put on by superstars (not just b-list celebs) or any of the other amazing things the campaign does to get out the vote, the reach people by the millions in an albeit arguably unprecedented way.
A fundamental understanding of the Internet and it's users
This campaign has proven time and time again how much it really understands today's America. It was obvious, before the 2008 Primary elections were underway that the Obama campaign was special in this regard. They were the first campaign to create a ‘YouTube Channel'. They have had pages/profiles on Facebook, Myspace, Flickr, Digg, Twitter, LinkedIn, Black Planet and even ‘FaithBase'.
Many things have been written about Obama's fundraising. A quick Google News search will yield hundreds of results of news articles on Obama shattering fundraising records all over the place. Since fall of 2007 the Obama campaign is rumored to have raised a half billion dollars from as many as 3 million individual supporters.
Genuine A-List Celebrity Support
Whether it's Jennifer Aniston, Robert DeNiro, Chris Rock, Samuel L. Jackson, Scarlett Johansen, George Clooney, Ben Affleck, Will-I-Am, John Legend or Oprah Winfrey Obama's support is vast and broad amongst these people. The best thing about this support is that it's really been well thought out and well rolled out by the campaign and by the respective publicists.
Early in 2008 when asked in an interview, George Clooney said that he would not be supporting Obama in public more than was necessary to stop the republicans from using his support against Barack. Had this been John Kerry Clooney's endorsement would have been just an ‘I'm liberal so I'll get some face time with the camera and say I like the guy' but with Barack, these people seem to actually care. We all know that Oprah has never done this sort of thing in the past and were more than cautious when coming out to support Barack publicly.
The Electoral College and Re-Drawing the Political Landscape
(EDIT: In the days that I was writing this document the strategy outlined and explained below has been kicked into overdrive and is working even better than anyone expected)
When it came time for the Obama campaign to woo the super delegates they had a selling point that the Clinton campaign just could not legitimately pitch: Re-drawing the political map and the down-ballot benefit that Obama has. This is a 2 part idea that has, so far, worked in every way possible.
In the past, the map has been usually been an giant sea of red states with some blue states on the west coast, the northern part of the east coast and 2 to 4 in the mid west, depending on how boring the democratic candidate was. This year things have changed. Big Time.
During the primaries, when Obama routed Clinton in Georgia while getting as much as 90% of the male vote; people were blown away. When the pundits were talking about the Deep South and bigotry and what not, the Obama campaign was spending money there yes, but time also. They knocked on every door, whether in the hoods, the trailer parks or the burbs. Needless to say, the caught Clinton staring off into space thinking she had the whole thing in the bag already.
The way you apply this strategy to the General Election is to play a little less possum and show your opponent where you expect to win. In this case, the McCain campaign will choose to spend money in those areas, which leaves them less money to pound Obama with in the battleground states (or perceived battle grounds). All the while Obama has an un-paralleled ground game which is worth almost as much as the all mighty dollar in this situation.
Presidential Elections history shows us that if you want to be president, you must win Ohio. The past two elections show that you've got to win Florida too. And if you ask the pundits over at Fox News, you've got to win Ohio, PA, Michigan AND Florida. – Well, I've got news for Fox, Barack Doesn't need ANY OF THEM. If the election were held today (10/7/08, exactly one month before the General Election itself, Barack Obama would win 364 to 174.
Take away OH/PA/MI/FL and Obama STILL wins 279 to 259. There are reports out as I write this that the Obama campaign registered 37,000 democrats in the PAST. SEVEN. DAYS. Yep, I said it – seven days. There are plenty of other reports just like this in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Missouri and several other states.