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2010 Midterm Elections

Congressional, state and local elections to be held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010

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2010 election will be a "seismic" shift in America

  • Nov 3, 2010
Rating:
+5
Nov. 2 11:00 PM EST---------------
 
I live in the S.E. part of Virginia although I was raised in South Beach in Florida.  My BA is in pol.sci. and my graduate degree in the humanities reading in philosophy and history.  I am a retired army officer and helicopter pilot and presently an adjunct professor in history.  I am a fiscal conservative and believe in a robust foreign policy and national defense.  I am not a big social conservative as is typical in the Republican Party.   I have not attended any Tea Party events.  I give that background to explain the hermeneutic lens by which I observe politics.
 
It looks like the GOP will be picking up close to 60 seats in the house.  This is the biggest repudiation of a White House since 1932!!!  The respected political prognosticator Dr. Larry Sabato of the Univ. of VA proposed 55 seats.  This number is a colossal switch in the house.  By the way, because of vacancies there will actually be close to 80 new house members.  Close to 40 of those new seats are won by new members that were endorsed by the Tea Party!  Interestingly, the new Speaker, Rep. Boehner, will have a 20 seat majority to work with which will give him plenty of wiggle room to get his needed 218 votes on tough issues where some of his members may need to vote against the GOP in order to stay in good stead with their constituents.
 
Some microcosms of the house reveal some interesting patterns.  First, the GOP is regaining the south, and is making some new gains in the very blue northeast.  It also looks like many seats are returning to the GOP column in Ohio where Pres. Obama has held more town hall meetings than any other state in the Union!
 
In Virginia it looks like three seats will switch from blue to red.  2 of those seats were freshmen incumbents that rode into the house on Pres. Obama’s coat tails.  In this election those coat tails are just about non existent.  Just this past Friday Pres. Obama campaigned for Rep. Perriello, the only House race he “stuck his neck out” for.  This was one “scalp” that was on the GOP’s “top 10” list from months ago. This is a personal and bitter defeat for the Pres. Obama and can only be seen as a repudiation of his agenda, one that the White House will not be able to spin!  The 3rd seat lost in Va. Is Rep. Boucher a long serving Dem who lost his seat.  The 4thseat is too close to call.  Oh, did I mention that the Democratic National Committee Chair, Tim Kaine is the former Gov. of Virginia?  He has already admitted that the 3 lost seats in VA. "hurt personally"!!!
 
In my native state of Florida it looks like the GOP is making big gains.  One of the most important “scalps” for the GOP was Rep. Grayson, looks like the GOP is picking up at least 5 House seats.  In the senate, Marco Rubio handedly beat Charlie Crist.
 
The count in the senate thus far with the win for Dems in W. VA means that it is very unlikely that the GOP will gain the majority there.  However, with Manchin’s win in W. Va. you had a Dem who ran against the Obama agenda and he will be held accountable for the next 2 years to vote that way since he is only elected to serve out the last 2 years of former Sen. Byrd’s term.  Looks like Pennsylvania senate seat may take a few days; however at 10:50 EST Toomey is now ahead and Kirk in Illinois is ahead.
 
The other important GOP gains are in the governor mansions and state houses.  Much of these gains will not be reported on in detail but are very important to redistricting house seats across the country and in the 2012 presidential race.  The GOP has already picked up the state mansions in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, these added to Virginia and New Jersey of one year ago is significant to the 2012 presidential race.  Pres. Obama won all those states in the last election; it will be harder to do so with GOP governors working against him!  If Florida and Ohio go to the GOP this will be a real headache for the president!!!  Larry Sabato predicted that the GOP will pick up over 500 seats in state legislatures across the country, causing over 10 state houses becoming a majority GOP lead legislature which has important implications for years to come because of redistricting!
 
OK enough election analysis!  What does this election mean for the country?
 
As an observer of politics I am very interested in how this burgeoning Tea Party has the potential to change the current political landscape in Washington.  Now that the elections are over, I think it is important to understand the power that the Tea Party legislators will have in January.

First, it is important to note that there are very passionate voters in America that are not willing to accept the Obama, Pelosi, Reid agenda and are actively seeking to change politics in Washington.  People want jobs!!!  Both parties better find a way to show Americans that jobs are #1 on their agendas.

Second, the power of the Tea Party candidates that win seats especially in the senate will be huge!!!  Even though the GOP will not take a majority in the senate, an election of 5 or 6 Tea Party senators will mean that there could be a 54-46 split.  More importantly, the Tea Party Senators will erase the ability of the 2 moderate GOP senators like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins from throwing support to a democratic bill for passage. 

This is the real power of the Tea Party; the entire Senate will be shifted to the right!!!  Hopefully, this means that our politicians will finally work to create an environment for job growth, rein in government spending and work to decrease the deficit!

Update Nov 3, 12:15 EST-----------------

GOP just won Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Kirk of Illinois, Pres. Obama's senate seat.  OUCH!!!!  This is going to be real hard for the White House to put a positive spin on this election!!!

By the way, Kirk gets installed immediately in the lame duck session of the senate which will make it very hard for the Dems to try to pass anything controversial in the lame duck session.

12:30 EST--------------

Reid holds onto his seat!!!  That is the one "scalp" that got away from the GOP!!!

12:50 EST----------

Jerry Brown wins Califronia governership again!!!  However, this has got to be the most thankless political job in America considering the budget problems there!!!
2010 election will be a

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November 04, 2010
Interesting take and following. Thank you.
 
November 03, 2010
Nice take on the election. I am not exactly too active to things political but this is very useful. Thanks!
 
November 03, 2010
Great take on the election. I like you am fiscally conservative and also with regards to foreign policy, and other things that are government's responsiblity. I hope that the new leaders stay focused on those things and get the economy moving in a better direction. I hope they do not get sidetracked, like their predecessors on social issues. It was amazing with all that was going on that the last group made healthcare their priority. Over the last few years though I find that even if you vote for someone who shares your views, they seem to get pressured by controlling factions in their party and many times will go away from what you selected them for. I don't have a lot of faith in Boehner and though he will be better then Reid, he seems too angry at times to be able to work with anybody.
 
November 03, 2010
Excellent review Michael. I'm sitting here and watching the results... Though I am a registered Republican, I can't really say I'm excited - I think curious is a better word to describe it. I am curious to see what direction this country will take now and how much will actually change. Why am I not excited? Because neither the Dems or Reps represent my views or what I believed this country to be, and the smaller parties it seems are to small to matter. Thanks for sharing your insight though!
November 03, 2010
Thank you for your compliment and comment. As the old Chinese proverb goes. "May you live in interesting times." I still don't know if that is a blessing or a curse. Time will tell if this election is a blessing or a curse?
 
November 03, 2010
Jim, I couldn't agree more! I think our system was built for divided govt. and thus concensus. As the great 19th century historian Lord Acton so aptly said, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely."
 
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More 2010 Midterm Elections reviews
Quick Tip by . October 27, 2010
A big night for conservatives in this country. We are tired of being trampled on by politicians of both political parties. Many of the leaders in the Republican party still don't get it either, Sure we are going to make some mistakes but the people who make this country work are going to take the first big step in taking back our country on Tuesday night. And it's not going to stop with this election either. People like Susan Collins will be targeted in 2012 as well. And it goes without saying that …
About the reviewer
Michael Neulander ()
Ranked #44
Recently graduated with a Masters in Humanities degree from Old Dominion University reading in philosophy and history. I graduated from the Univ. of Miami in 1980 with a B.A. in Political Science; specializing … more
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Wiki

The 2010 United States midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested in this election along with 38 state and territorial governorships, many state legislatures, four territorial legislatures and numerous state and local races.

The GOP lost heavily in the 2006 and 2008 elections, giving up Congress and the White House. Congressional Republicans were almost unanimous in opposing the key elements of the Obama administration domestic policy in 2009-2010, while generally supporting its foreign policy in Afghanistan and Iraq. With the economy continuing to falter, support for Obama and the Democrats has suffered significantly. Political analysts in October 2010 predict sweeping Republican gains in the 2010 midterm elections, pointing to the swing that would be generated on current polling, and an "enthusiasm gap" that measures Republican voters to be significantly more engaged than Democratic voters.[1]

The issues highlighted by the candidates and voters in 2010 focus on national economic conditions and the economic policies of the Obama Administration, especially regarding bailouts, health care, taxes, and deficits, as well as corruption in government and terrorism.[2] Voters have paid relatively little attention to foreign affairs or the environment. Political analyst Dick Morris has argued that in a "fundamental ...

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